Paraguayan General Elections 2023. Decolorize Paraguay, close the historical cycle of the Colorado State.
Pelao Carvallo*
Right-wing elections
Next Sunday, April 30, 2023, Paraguay will hold unusual elections, as noted by Paraguayan political scientist and historian Milda Rivarola [1] : compared to previous elections, there is a noticeable absence of campaign advertising, especially from the ruling party, the National Republican Association-Colorado Party (ANR). More than 4.7 million people eligible to vote that day will elect [2] a presidential/vice-presidential ticket, as well as senators, representatives, departmental governors, and members of the departmental boards.
Since the mid-40s, Paraguay has been under the control of the Colorado Party, both through dictatorships (Morínigo, though not for his entire term, and Stroessner) and through governments elected in “democratic” processes (almost all since the 90s). For over 70 years, the ANR has shaped the Colorado State [3] that Paraguay currently suffers. Electorally, the Colorado State manifests itself in a vote-buying market orchestrated by the ANR, requiring an enormous logistical capacity to transport Colorado voters to polling places, pay for their votes [4] , and ensure their own votes are counted while others are lost. Within the civil service, it is an unofficial requirement to be registered as an ANR member, and once employed, aligning oneself with a rising Colorado leader [5] guarantees promotions and raises. As for the law, being part of the Colorado elite avoids unpleasant situations and ensures impunity.
The current elections are marked by US intervention through the declaration of several Colorado Party leaders as “significantly corrupt” [6] (there is one who is not, but this is not taken into account in the public eye), including former President Horacio Cartes (HC) and current Vice President Hugo Velázquez. Companies belonging to former President Cartes have been sanctioned to the point that HC had to officially divest himself of all his holdings. These US declarations have made it extremely difficult for the Colorado Party to obtain legal financing for campaign expenses, and have also led to a certain judicial and prosecutorial impasse in investigating crimes committed by prominent Colorado leaders. This comes after the end of the term of Attorney General Sandra Quiñónez, a staunch Cartes supporter (HC follower), who was replaced by Emiliano Rolón, from the judiciary. Rolón is reportedly moving forward with the complaints against powerful figures that had been stalled in the bureaucracy by the previous Attorney General.
These and other situational and historical reasons mean that the current elections present a possibility that the Executive branch could fall into non-Colorado hands. The candidacy with the best chance is that of the Concertación para un Nuevo Paraguay (Coalition for a New Paraguay), whose presidential candidate is the liberal (of the Authentic Radical Liberal Party - PLRA), Efraín Alegre. There are other presidential candidacies—populist, anti-rights, etc.—bringing the total to 13. Of that total, only 3 or 4 will obtain more than 2% of the vote; the rest are all merely symbolic, symbolic, and/or unsuccessful. To counter the opposition, the Colorado Party has always used the electoral tactic of promoting many other presidential candidacies, thus dividing the opposition. The Efraín Alegre faction claims this has happened this time and cites the candidacies of the Paraguayan populist “Payo” Cubas [7] and the former Minister of the Interior and Foreign Minister of the current Colorado Party government, Euclides Acevedo, supported by a sector of the left, as divisive. Payo Cubas would be the third most voted presidential candidate, far behind the first two, and presents himself as the Paraguayan Bukele, anti-rights, and who, among other things, will force women to breastfeed their children until they reach two years of age [8] . Euclides Acevedo has had an authoritarian, though not populist, discourse.
If the Colorado Party's intention—following Efraín's rhetoric—was for the candidacies of Payo and Euclides to siphon votes away from Efraín, the feeling is that, based on their rhetoric and charisma, both candidates would actually take more votes from the ANR candidate. Santiago Peña appears to lack the charisma and interest that Colorado leaders usually generate. Candidate Peña seems weak and like a puppet of his mentor, former President Cartes, who orchestrated his candidacy for the second time (the previous attempt, in 2018, was thwarted in the Colorado primary). Thus, even the planting of presidential candidates this time harms the ANR more than the anti-Colorado opposition. The social and economic situation [9] is a mix of over-indebtedness [10] , corruption, and unrest; it seems things couldn't get any worse, and the ANR is offering itself as the solution to the problems of the Colorado Party. This scenario is what makes the opposition's victory with presidential candidate Efraín Alegre viable.
Efraín Alegre, the presidential candidate for the Paraguayan Concertación, a broad-based coalition (spanning from right to left), is politically and economically liberal, center-right, but due to Paraguay's electoral geography, he has landed on the center-left. This is because, with few exceptions, all the presidential candidates are right-wing, especially those polling highest: the right-wing Colorado Party candidate Santi Peña; the populist and anti-women candidate Payo Cubas; and the conservative Euclides. Even the famous former soccer goalkeeper Chilavert is right-wing. Because of this geographical situation, Efraín has leaned to the left, and to balance things out, he has chosen the right-wing neoliberal Soledad Núñez as his vice-presidential candidate.
The Paraguayan left was divided into two large blocs: one within the Concertación coalition, led by Esperanza Martínez, Lugo's former health minister and senator for the Frente Guasu (FG), and the other supporting the right-wing candidacy of Euclides Acevedo through his vice-presidential candidate, Jorge Querey, also an FG senator. Leftist sectors had made a great effort to face this election united, but they were barely able to agree on the senatorial list. Although there is a high probability of victory for the Alegre/Núñez ticket in the presidential race, a Colorado Party majority is expected in the legislature. This Colorado majority in the legislature will have a certain anti-rights influence, as has been the case until now, where they are strong in both the legislature and the executive branch [11].
This moment is another stage in the fight against the State of Colorado.
The peoples that make up Paraguay have been confronting the Colorado State since its creation, beginning in the mid-1940s when the dictator Higinio Morínigo (40-1947) was forced to abandon his close ties with the Axis powers and become an “anti-communist [12] .” To this end, he transformed the Colorado Party into his tool for relegating liberalism to a secondary role or eliminating it altogether, leading the country into a civil war (1947) which the Colorado Party won. This civil war was an attempt by those who lost the war to thwart the creation of the Colorado State.
The dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner marks the second phase of the struggle to liberate the Colorado Party: the anti-dictatorial struggle that lasted as long as the Stroessner dictatorship itself (1954-1989). This dictatorship rested on three pillars: the Presidency, the Armed Forces, and the National Republican Association (ANR). Student, guerrilla, electoral, social, and labor struggles followed one another during this long dictatorship, which, mortally wounded by the social struggles of the 80s and the US's abandonment of South American dictatorships, was overthrown by its own Armed Forces to save the Colorado Party's rule. This strategic move divided control of the Colorado Party between two factions: the Army and the party.
The “democratic” transition marked the third stage of the struggle against the Colorado Party: demilitarization. The Stroessner dictatorship had left behind armed forces heavily influenced by the Colorado Party (for example, membership in the ANR was required to become an officer [13] ) and with a strong presence in the political and economic institutions. The first president after Stroessner was General Rodríguez (1989-1993), who had led the military coup that overthrew Stroessner. Key to the demilitarization process was the growing awareness among the political class of how damaging military leadership was to political and macroeconomic stability, as was the case with Lino Oviedo, a military officer and Colorado Party political leader, who between the 90s and the early 2000s attempted to seize control of the executive branch several times, on one occasion leading to a massacre known as the Paraguayan March [14] . The concerted action of the political and economic elites to stop Lino Oviedo was framed within a determined demilitarizing strategy [15] governmental and legislative on the one hand and social on the other that lasted, with force until the middle of the (colorado) government of Nicanor Duarte (2003-2008).
During Nicanor Duarte's Colorado Party administration and continuing to the present, the fourth stage of the struggle against the Colorado State has unfolded: the political, social, and cultural de-Coloradoization of the country. Following the experiences of the non-Colorado government of Fernando Lugo (2008-2012) and the liberal coup government of Federico "Florero" Franco (2012-2013), it became clear to the opposition that a true democracy was not being experienced. It became increasingly difficult to defend the myth of a two-party system, so useful to the Colorado Party, and the situation began to be described as a more realistic one-party system based on hegemony [16]. This system does not conceal Colorado control but rather acknowledges the existence of an opposition that legitimizes that control. The Paraguayan State as it currently exists began to be described as a Colorado State [17], and criticisms of the Colorado Party's strategies for dividing the opposition became more pronounced [18] . Social movements, especially peasant movements, have opted for a relationship of autonomy and accountability with the state of Colorado, as well as greater coordination among themselves to confront both outright repression and the implicit repression of a regime that favors soybean, cattle, and rice farmers—all ecocidal—and disadvantages small farmers, women, Indigenous peoples, and the urban poor without homes, exposing them to the effects of every economic crisis, real or fabricated (i.e., financial). The current conditional support of the National Peasant Federation (FNC) for Efraín Alegre's candidacy demonstrates this. The FNC, a renowned activist, had until now refrained from supporting any candidate throughout its long history of decades.
The construction of organizations, movements, and social coexistence based on autonomy, horizontality, anti-authoritarianism, parity, self-financing, transparency, and the joy of sharing in solidarity—already present in the daily lives of peasants and indigenous people—can be the great impetus for eradicating the Colorado Party culture from Paraguayan society. This would put a stop to the patronage, caudillismo, machismo, and corruption that are hallmarks of the reigning Colorado Party. A real, social anti-Colorado sentiment already exists and forms the basis for the process of dismantling the Colorado Party and ultimately, the fall of the Colorado State. This process will not be resolved with a simple change of executive branch, although, like any state election, it serves as a poll that will reveal the current state of affairs regarding the process. The very likely victory of Efraín Alegre will be a result of the need for dismantling the Colorado Party that Paraguay feels and perceives.
* Member of the CLACSO Working Group on Collective Memories and Practices of Resistance.
[1] In a situation analysis for educators carried out on Saturday, April 15 at the Serpaj headquarters in the city of Asunción, Paraguay.
[2] https://www.abc.com.py/politica/2023/03/29/elecciones-paraguay-2023-quienes-deben-votar/
[3] https://www.clacso.org/el-estado-colorado-de-paraguay/
[4] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSlArwPJWQk
[5] To have a “kavaju”.
[6] https://www.ultimahora.com/eeuu-designa-3-mas-y-amplia-9-la-lista-corruptos-significativos-n3054446.html
[7] https://ea.net.py/blogs/paraguayo-cubas-no-es-anarquista-ni-de-lejos/
[8] https://eltrueno.com.py/2023/03/19/amamantamiento-obligatorio-hasta-los-dos-anos-propone-payo-cubas/
[9] https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/paraguay/overview
[10] https://www.elnacional.com.py/economia/2023/04/16/victor-benitez-gonzalez-economia-hambrienta-2023/
[11] For example, the situation in Education https://feipar.org/2023/04/03/feipar-presenta-propuesta-de-ajustes-al-plan-nacional-de-transformacion-educativa/ and https://feipar.org/2022/12/27/hemos-exigido-al-mec-la-anulacion-inmediata-de-la-resolucion-riera/
[12] https://countrystudies.us/paraguay/16.htm
[13] Page 37 https://www.cde.org.py/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Stronismo-Golpe-Militar-y-apertura-tutelada.pdf
[14] https://www.ultimahora.com/la-violenta-historia-del-primer-marzo-paraguayo-n2930267.html
[15] http://paraguay.sociales.uba.ar/wp-content/uploads/sites/129/archivos/P_Carvallo22016.pdf
[16] https://ea.net.py/blogs/el-comienzo-del-fin-del-regimen-colorado/
[17] https://www.clacso.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/El-estado-colorado-Paraguay-Pelao-Carvallo.pdf
[18] https://ea.net.py/blogs/el-estronismo-democrata-defendido-por-el-progresismo-bienintencionado/
