August 2023 elections: achievements and setbacks in Ecuador
Francisco Hidalgo Flor[1]
This article analyzes the results of the early presidential elections in Ecuador, held on August 20, within the context of the deepening social and political crisis gripping the country. This crisis is exacerbated by, among other factors, the accelerated security and drug trafficking crisis of the past year, which manifested itself during the electoral process in the assassinations of Agustín Intriago, the mayor of Manta, the country's fourth most populous city, in late July, and of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio in early August. We also reflect on the results of the referendums regarding halting oil exploitation in the Yasuní region of the Amazon and halting mining expansion in the Chocó Andino region.
The early elections this August are a consequence of President Guillermo Lasso's application, in May, of a constitutional measure known as "mutual dissolution" (or "cross-dissolution") in response to the institutional crisis. This measure, provided for in Article 82 of the current Constitution, suspended the legislative branch but simultaneously shortened the presidential term. A new president and parliament will be elected to complete the government's term until 2025.
The application of the cross-dissolution is a manifestation of the political crisis caused by the confrontation between the progressive tendency that controlled the national parliament and the neoliberal tendency that controls the executive power, without mechanisms of points of agreement before a president Lasso committed to a strict application of the neoliberal program of cutting the state and of a transnational extractivist path of accumulation, also tainted by accusations of corruption in the management of the main state companies.
The novelty of the situation lies in the worsening of the social crisis, whose main signs are the lack of jobs and the increase in poverty conditions among the population, especially in rural and urban marginal areas, who have found an escape route in the increase of illegal financial circuits and local drug trafficking gangs, now connected with transnational mafias.
The extent of the social penetration of drug trafficking gangs became evident in recent weeks in coastal cities such as Guayaquil, Durán, Daule, and Esmeraldas, when hundreds of young people on motorcycles took to the streets in marginalized neighborhoods to protest the repression in prisons.
RESULTS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.
The results of the first round of the presidential elections, in which eight candidates participated, show that Luisa Gonzales, the candidate of the Citizen Revolution party, came in first with 33% of the vote; Daniel Noboa came in second with 23%; and Christian Zurita came in third with 16%, the votes previously given to the assassinated candidate Villavicencio.[2].
The Citizen Revolution party, led by former president Correa, has long been the country's leading political force, having won the first round of presidential elections for the past fifteen years. However, in the 2021 elections, it lost in the second round to the right-wing candidate, Guillermo Lasso, due to the rise of the "anti-Correa" ideological movement, which managed to unite all other political forces. Its candidate, Luisa González, presented as her main campaign slogan a return to a positive past, with a strong state presence, expressed in the motto: "Let's have a homeland again."
While Daniel Noboa's presence in the second round, with 23% of the vote, is a surprise, it essentially mirrors the political scenario of 2021. The rival challenging the Citizen Revolution is a direct representative of large private business sectors; back then it was the banker Lasso, now it's the agro-exporter Noboa. This new Noboa presented himself as the candidate of the new generation and was so astute that he even supported the "Yes" vote in the Yasuní referendum.
Third place is held by the candidate and movement that were led by the assassinated Fernando Villavicencio, with 16%. This event disrupted the country's political landscape and resulted in a "vote of condolence" in favor of a political group with a considerable presence of former military and police officers in its ranks. In fact, the first candidate for national deputy, Patricio Carrillo, was the Minister of the Interior and commanded the military and police control of the indigenous uprisings of 2019 and 2022.
Yaku Pérez, the candidate representing the historical left-wing movements and a former leader of the indigenous movement, garnered a meager 4% of the vote today. This contrasts sharply with his performance in 2021, when he obtained 19% and came very close to reaching the second round. The impact of the internal division within the indigenous movement between CONAIE and Pachakutik was evident.
In the election of national assembly members, the Citizen Revolution party obtained 39% of the vote, which is 6 points more than its presidential candidate; the second strongest political force was the Construye party of the assassinated Villavicencio with 20%, which is 4 points more than in the presidential race; the third strongest party was the ADN party with 14% of the electorate, which is 9 points less than its presidential candidate; at the parliamentary level, those who supported Yaku obtained 3%.[3].
EVOLUTION IN THE POLITICAL-IDEOLOGICAL DISPUTE
The results of the early elections in August 2023 show some changes in names and acronyms, but essentially they closely resemble the 2021 scenario. The most notable variations are the ideological shifts that have failed to address the structural causes of a worsening economic and social crisis that could lead to national collapse. However, the results of the popular consultations on environmental issues and resistance to extractivism offer a significant glimmer of hope.
The political landscape in 2021 maintained this order, according to the vote for parties in national parliaments: Citizen Revolution (32%), Pachakutik (17%), Democratic Left (12%), Social Christianity (9,7%), and the CREO movement (9%). In 2023, the order is: Citizen Revolution (39%), Construye (20%), ADN Movement (14%), Social Christianity (12%), and the Actuemos movement (4%).
In 2021, the center-left and left ideological spectrum, encompassing progressivism, the indigenous movement, and traditional social democracy, represented 61% of the electorate, while the center-right and right spectrum represented 20%. By 2023, the center-left and left spectrum represents 45%, while the center-right and right spectrum represents 62%.
Among the top five political forces in both political periods, only two names appear repeatedly: Citizen Revolution and Social Christianity, representing progressivism and the traditional right, respectively. The Pachakutik, Democratic Left, and CREO parties (the latter led by President Lasso) experienced crises.
It should be noted that in this political period 2021-2023, progressivism has been evolving towards centrist positions, continuing to advocate a path of capitalist development under state control, but in these elections it refrained from openly endorsing the Yasuní referendum and its candidate Gonzales displays loyalty to leader Correa as her main attribute.
The right wing has mutated in name and face, abandoning any kind of political party structure and modulating its discourse on issues like the environment. The best example is the candidate Daniel Noboa. His movement is called ADN, which could stand for "National Democratic Action," but it's also the acronym for Álvaro Daniel Noboa, his name (incidentally, the acronym RC could stand for Citizen Revolution, but also for Rafael Correa). Let's just say he's had the advantage of a short electoral campaign, in which he's been able to avoid taking positions on neoliberal measures. In this, he differs from Lasso, who openly displayed neoliberal proposals.
But the more conservative right wing is migrating towards the so-called "Construye" movement, the one that nominated the assassinated Villavicencio, in which police and military circles have a strong influence.
The Creo movement, led by President Lasso, decided not to participate in these early elections.
From a left-wing perspective, the regrettable outcome was the split between CONAIE and Pachakutik, which reached its peak in 2021 with the second-largest parliamentary bloc. However, this division exacerbated internal conflicts and limitations in their ability to engage in political action within these political arenas. The pressures to infiltrate and fragment the Indigenous movement were significant, fueled by the right wing under President Lasso and by the progressive movement through the infiltration of Correa's supporters into its leadership.
In these political-ideological scenarios, the social and political positions capable of raising proposals and demands for structural changes to the causes of the deep crisis that Ecuador is experiencing are weakened; that is, the persistence and expansion of a primary-export accumulation pattern that bets on extractive paths and global trade agreements that end up destroying what little remains of the national productive apparatus.
POSITIVE LESSONS FROM ENVIRONMENTAL PUBLIC CONSULTATIONS.
In August, in addition to voting for president and parliament, voters had to decide on two environmental referendums with an anti-extractive focus: First, a national referendum asked whether or not to halt oil extraction in the Yasuní region of the Amazon, with 59% voting in favor; second, a referendum in the canton of Quito asked whether to stop mining in the Chocó Andino region, with 68% voting in favor.[4]This resulted in a resounding victory for the environmentalist arguments to halt the expansion of oil and mining exploitation in these two natural reserve areas.
Positive results from environmental public consultations must be interpreted from a medium and long-term perspective; a short-term view is of little help.
Taking this long view, we must mention three factors: i) the evolution of the environmental movement in Ecuador; ii) the constitutional and institutional basis achieved; iii) the social and political battles fought and how the three converge in the debate around Yasuní.
The environmental movement emerged in Ecuador in the late 1980s and early 1990s from two sources: non-governmental organizations and the Indigenous movement, particularly in the Amazon. It later gained greater momentum with the expansion of its work and proposals focused on the Amazon and the denunciation of the negative consequences of oil exploitation. This represents a convergence between environmental activism and the influence of social anthropology regarding uncontacted peoples.[5]One of those scenarios is precisely Yasuní.
There, the environmental movement meets the debates of the currents on post-development, and from there, in the early 2000s, the key proposal on Yasuní was born.[6] The proposal, whose central idea was to promote a global support fund for Ecuador to leave its oil reserves underground in this region of significant natural importance, gained traction during the first phase of Rafael Correa's developmentalist government, between 2007 and 2013. However, in that year, the president abandoned the proposal and instead authorized the start of oil exploitation.[7].
At that time, ten years ago, several efforts arose from social movements advocating that Ecuadorian citizens should decide through a popular referendum whether or not to authorize the economic exploitation of Yasuní. The group that emerged from this movement is known as “Yasunidos.”[8], who have persisted in their work throughout this time.
This confluence of forces – the environmental movement, the indigenous movement, and critical debates on development – will have a positive impact on the 2008 Constituent Assembly, resulting, during the period presided over by Alberto Acosta, in the Constitution recognizing the rights of nature and establishing regulations to protect natural reserves.
In the evolution of the regulations during the following decade (2013 – 2023), the Constitutional Court played a fundamental role, developing a series of rulings that consolidated the legislation and jurisprudence on the subject, including the resolution that enabled the popular consultation of this August 2023.[9].
Throughout this journey, spanning at least a decade, the thesis of protecting Yasuní and raising awareness of the blockades imposed by various governments—both Correa's in 2013 and Lasso's in 2022—to try to prevent this consultation, as well as the campaign orchestrated by large oil and mining companies, has gained strength and traction nationwide, reaching broad sectors of the population.
Regarding the social and political behavior at the polls this August 2023, in response to the proposed consultations, the groups and networks promoting the Yes vote were strengthened, and there was a debate that focused on the magnitude of the economic impacts of halting the exploitation and dismantling of the already installed infrastructure.[10].
The inclusion of the consultation regarding the conservation of the Andean Choco was important, as it is a more recent discussion, and it helped to bring in new sectors, as well as mobilizing the debate in the center of political power, since it was a question to the voters in the Quito canton.
IN CONCLUSION
The August 2023 elections reflected social and political realities on two levels: on the one hand, the representation of political power—the presidency and parliamentarians; on the other hand, the broader understandings among the population regarding nature and development. At the first level, the leading role belongs to political-electoral structures and candidates; at the second, it belongs to social movements and various types of civil society, from business associations to non-governmental organizations.
At the level of power representation and political-electoral forces, while the progressive current holds first place, there is a reduction in the center-left and left-wing trend. With a 2023 runoff election resembling the 2021 runoff, the choice will be between the new progressive representatives, Luisa Gonzales, and the business sector, Daniel Noboa.
At the level of social understandings of nature and development, there is majority support for environmental preservation theses over extractivist theses; social movements stand out here.
There is a flow of political behaviors that go beyond institutionalized structures and that pushes for processes of democratization in economic and social relations.
All within an electoral process that was the most violent since the return to constitutional order, apparently as one of the consequences of the confrontation between drug trafficking gangs intent on expanding not only market circuits, but also influence at the levels of political power.
Bibliography
National Electoral Council of Ecuador: August 2023 electoral results.
Alberto Acosta (2023). “These are the ethical reasons for leaving the Yasuní-ITT crude oil underground.” Plan V website.
Acosta, Gudynas, Martinez (2009). “Elements for a political-ecological proposal for no oil exploitation in the Amazon of Ecuador”. Ircamericas website.
Francisco Hidalgo Flor (2021). “2021 electoral process: options in motion”. In: Sociology and Politics Today magazine, number 5.
Sara Latorre (2010). “Popular ecologism in Ecuador: past and present”. Institute of Ecuadorian Studies – IEE.
Unda, M. and Hidrovo, M. (2023). “Ecuador at its political crossroads: electoral upheaval of 2023”. In: Sociology and Politics Today magazine, number 8.
[1] Sociologist, professor at the Central University of Ecuador. Member of the CLACSO Working Group
Critical studies of rural development. (mail: [email protected] )
[2] For the results of the presidential elections, please see the official website of the National Electoral Council. https://elecciones2023.cne.gob.ec/#
[3] For the election results for National Assembly members, see the official website of the National Electoral Council. https://elecciones2023.cne.gob.ec/Asambleistas/nacionales#
[4] For information on the results of the popular consultations regarding Yasuní and Choco Andino, see the official website of the National Electoral Council: https://elecciones2023.cne.gob.ec/Consultas/yasuni
[5] Regarding the environmental movement in Ecuador, see: “Popular Environmentalism in Ecuador” by Sara Latorre (consult at: https://www.iee.org.ec/ejes/sociedad-alternativa-2/el-ecologismo-popular-en-el-ecuador-pasado-y-presente.html )
[6] For the presentation on the Yasuní initiative, see: https://albertoacosta.ec/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/explotaci%C3%B3nAmazonia-09.pdf
[7] For a summary of the Yasuní initiative, see the Wikipedia encyclopedia: https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iniciativa_Yasun%C3%AD-ITT
[8] For more information about the Yasunidos movement, see their website: https://www.yasunidos.org/
[9] See the Constitutional Court's ruling that authorizes the popular consultation on Yasuní: https://www.corteconstitucional.gob.ec/dictamen-nro-6-22-cp-23/
[10] Among the arguments in favor of preserving Yasuní, see Acosta's article "Ethical Reasons for Leaving the Yasuní-ITT Crude Oil Underground." Website https://www.planv.com.ec/historias/plan-verde/estas-son-razones-eticas-dejar-el-crudo-del-yasuni-itt-el-subsuelo
