The Latin American vote: ideological or pragmatic?
Recent elections in Latin America confirm a growing right-wing wave. Is this part of the pendulum swing we see between political extremes, or are new motivations guiding voters?
From right to left, and vice versa, the pendulum swings in Latin American elections, and this time markedly. In contrast to the recent pink tide of progressive left-wing governments, now it is the turn of the conservative right-wing wave, which is consolidating thanks to recent victories in Ecuador, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, and Colombia.
"It's a pendulum, but it's also an anti-establishment pendulum, because the old recipes that had been given no longer work for the electorates and they are looking for new alternatives outside of what is established," Javiera Arce, a researcher at the Center for Studies for Public Management at the University of Valparaíso, Chile, tells DW.
"Some analyses show that change is what has determined the vote in many of the elections in recent years in Latin America. Sometimes, when authoritarian or reactionary options appear, it has more to do with the search for change from what existed before, than with a programmatic adherence to the far right," Pablo Vommaro , executive director of the Latin American Council of Social Sciences (CLACSO), told DW.
In Arce's opinion, political parties have become "less ideologically driven and more pragmatic, based on a centrist consensus." As a result, ideological disputes have diminished, and parties have focused on new causes. "They clash over more secondary issues and more immediate, small, and niche demands," adds the PhD in Political Science, who believes that the public's connection to the parties has weakened: "It seems they no longer channel the public's affections effectively. Therefore, we've seen a revival of old material demands, such as public safety and economic security."
According to Hans-Jürgen Burchardt, the duration of the pendulum's swings is variable, and we don't know how long they might extend in the medium and long term. "We must acknowledge, on the one hand, that the progressive center failed to deliver on its most important promise, which has been redistribution, not only for reasons of social justice, but also to make countries more productive and, through that, improve living and working conditions. This has been a major disappointment for these governments, and the right wing has taken advantage of this at times," observes the professor of International Relations at the University of Kassel, in an interview with DW.
On the other hand, he cites the example of the last election in Chile. The debate centered on security, a topic very present in the media, even though the level of alarm does not correspond to the statistics. Like migration, insecurity is a topic prioritized by the right wing, over concerns such as health, education, or pensions.
Struggle to capture subjectivities
While disputes over material agendas persist in some countries, such as work, housing or health - in the election of Milei in Argentina, for example, it was inflation or the value of the dollar - "the dispute situated in the terrain of subjectivities, of the affective, the emotional and tastes has gained greater importance and more space in the definition of electoral contests in recent years," explains Vommaro.
“There is a struggle over meaning, which even some far-right forces frame as a culture war,” assesses the professor and researcher from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA). This influences the formation of voters' subjectivities and is linked to the prevailing sense of discontent in these contexts. In the battle to influence perceptions, the digital world and social media play a significant role, as does the strategy of disinformation, fake news, and AI-generated content based on unverifiable data.
This situation is exacerbated by "the growing uncertainty in which we live, a world where nothing seems certain, where everything can be shaken, from earthquakes to pandemics and wars. Uncertainty about the future is very strong among younger generations. It also contributes to the affective dimension taking on greater importance than in previous decades," explains the executive director of CLACSO.
The President of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, in front of a microphone, wearing the presidential sash, during the 88th anniversary of the Ecuadorian National Police.
Burchardt, for his part, points out that "no politician has answers, and the right wing doesn't have them either, but it manages to capitalize on fear, although the issue of security cannot be resolved through increased police or military repression. Other answers are needed."
In this regard, the director of the Käte Hamburger Kolleg research center at the University of Kassel points out differences between the countries: Argentina is heavily dependent on the IMF and loans, and faced with the threat of a lack of support from Trump, part of the population decided to vote for Milei. But in Brazil, meanwhile, Lula took a clear stance of defending its autonomy, and gained popularity.
Less loyal and more pragmatic voters
Looking at the recent ups and downs of Latin American elections, it seems that voters are no longer loyal to a single political trend, but rather driven by other interests. "They feel that politics hasn't been faithful to them and their demands, so they adjust their preferences, maximizing their options," Arce says.
According to Vommaro , "today, voting is defined less by ideology, adherence to a program, or party loyalty, and is decided more by immediate material and subjective conditions. Voting is more pragmatic in the sense of being more contingent, less loyal to certain options. There are also loyal votes, of course, but they are becoming increasingly diluted."
At the same time, "it is more emotional, affective, and linked to other affinities that are not directly related to programmatic or ideological adherence, but rather to feelings and perceptions, which are often quite negative, that is, feelings of unease, disillusionment, and disenchantment. And then a search for change emerges," explains the UBA academic.
"You could say they vote against something: for example, in Chile, against Kast's fascism in 2021, or against Jeannette Jara's communism in 2025, or recently in Colombia, or the anti-Peronist vote with Milei in 2023."
In that sense, Burchardt sees that in Argentina "the last government of Alberto Fernández was a disappointment for a large part of the population. Not only did it create high inflation, but it also increased unemployment among young people, and they felt more disillusioned with the progressive government than with the right wing's own ideas and objectives."
Are we in a post-ideological era?
Amid this panorama, the question is whether the era of ideologies has passed. Arce clarifies: "I wouldn't speak of post-ideology. These right-wing movements we have are extremely ideological. We are experiencing a brutal struggle over ideology, and it's a completely different kind of ideology."
For his part, Burchardt believes it happened "to a certain extent." "If we're talking about the left or progressive parties, they lack a narrative of a promise for the future, and if politicians can't offer anything, it means we have a de-ideologization, but not as a process of new politics, rather as an inability to create a narrative." He also believes that the right has the capacity to "channel and capitalize on the public's fear, and that's what it's doing by winning elections, even though it has no answers for anything. And that's not ideologization."
“I don’t know if ideology has become a thing of the past, because even within dominant discourses, ideology is stirred up when people are labeled ‘communist’ or ‘socialist,’ or a few years ago, ‘Castroist’ or ‘Chavista,’ or when certain countries, like Cuba or Venezuela, are presented as negative examples, ‘bogeymen,’ and the cause of all evils. These discourses are strongly ideological,” Vommaro warns . However, he reiterates that ideologies and programmatic allegiances have lost specific weight in the political arena, while affective, emotional, and more subjective allegiances are growing.
Victoria Dannemann
